SaeR - Sociedade de Avaliação de Empresas e Risco

Is America still AAA? Não! - Participada SaeR classifica EUA

A SR Rating, empresa participada da SaeR no Brasil, classificou o rating soberano do EUA com AA.
"A SR Rating inicia o acompanhamento do risco soberano dos EUA
A explosão da bolha financeira global em 2008 provocou o ressurgimento da percepção sobre o risco de crédito como um fenômeno pandêmico... Como consequência inevitável, o devedor soberano, por um momento, abandonou sua posição de qualidade de crédito altamente protegida, como país de referência na condição de emissor de classe AAA (triplo A), e passou a enfrentar o campo aberto das situações de risco de crédito consideradas não tão improváveis... É nossa opinião que a perspectiva de crédito da dívida soberana de longo prazo dos EUA se alterou radicalmente e assim permanecerá durante a próxima década, pelo menos."
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Reproduzimos aqui o artigo que foi publicado na última edição da revista “The Economist”, de 23/29 de Maio:

Is America still AAA? Não

Brazil rates America

WHEN Brazil’s sovereign bonds were raised to investment grade last year there was much rejoicing, such is the heft of the big credit-rating agencies in emerging markets. Yet somehow the process does not work in reverse, even though there are several independent rating agencies based in the bigger emerging markets that are capable of judging sovereign creditworthiness. This may be about to change. SR Rating, a Brazilian firm, will soon issue a judgment on American government bonds. Its verdict is not pretty: the company says it will issue a AA rating.
Paulo Rabello de Castro, who chairs the ratings committee at SR, describes the decision to rate Uncle Sam as “an outright provocation”. Yet he also thinks that firms in emerging markets like Brazil, which are accustomed to instability, might have some advantages when scanning the horizon for danger signs, compared with agencies that operate in the relative calm of Europe or America. “You can be living happily in the belly of a whale and operating with that as your world,” says Mr de Castro, “until one day the whale’s belly contracts and you discover there is a whole universe of risks out there.” Brazilians, he suggests, are specialists in such belly contractions.
Questioning America’s long-held AAA rating is not as treasonable now as it once seemed. Moody’s has recently raised the alarm about the combined strain that bailing out banks, stimulating the economy, and paying for health care and social security will put on the Treasury. Mr de Castro argues that perfect scores should henceforth be saved for places like Norway that sit on lots of oil, put revenues from its sale into a piggy bank and are unlikely to be invaded by their neighbours. As for the structured products that were mistakenly given AAA ratings over the past few years, he argues that no asset that has been around for less than ten years should be considered worthy of the accolade.
America’s bondholders will not be too put out by the verdict of one Brazilian rating agency. Concerns about long-term credit worthiness aired recently by the People’s Bank of China are much more likely to trouble them. SR Rating is, however, hoping to build a network of independent agencies in emerging markets that, taken together, would have more clout. They might even help to prevent future contractions.


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